Only time will tell if Cory’s move today will have any meaningful impact on Australian politics, but I’m fairly certain that the symbolism of his move alone will make an impact quite separately from any practical impact.

Many things can be said about Senator Bernardi, and I happen to like him far more than most other politicians you could name, but that’s my personal conservatism talking. (For those who haven’t heard me say it before, I describe myself as personally conservative, but politically libertarian. In other words, I make very conservative type choices for myself, but don’t believe in using the power of government to force others to do the same.)

But regardless of what you think of his politics, I think any honest critique would conclude that he’s not one to compromise on his values, and leaving the LNP is just a logical outworking of that trait.

As others have already said, it’s not that Sen. Bernardi is leaving the Liberal Party, it’s that the Party has progressively left him over the decades, and its finally reached a point where he can no longer remain a part of the Party that no longer meshes with his values.

What do I make of it all? It’s hard to predict at this moment what all this will mean. Is this the start of a meaningful political movement that will shape our nation in the future? Is it a flash in the pan that will be gone within only a few electoral cycles? Or is it somewhere in between?

Australia’s political history has a few similar chapters to this one, most obviously Don Chipp and the Australian Democrats. The Democrats survived for a few decades, and certainly made an impact on politics, arguably being one of the forces which pulled the Liberal National Party futher to the left, in order to combat their ‘centrist’ image. But ultimately they died a very public death as electoral stagnation and internal power struggles took their toll.

More recently we’ve seen the rise of a few ‘personality’ based parties which are unlikely to out-live their founders, the Katter Party and the Palmer (not very) United Party come to mind. I don’t expect the Australian Conservatives to suffer such a quick demise as these parties can be expected to, as it’s based on an agreed set of principles, not the whims of a person or personality.

And of course we can’t overlook One Nation, who are enjoying some strong national polling right now and I believe can be expected to continue to be a political force for some time to come, although whether it will survive the eventual departure or death of Pauline Hanson (presumably a few decades in the future) remains to be seen.

So with all of those moving parts adding to the confusion in the current political landscape, is there room for another party on the ‘right’ (the ‘left’ vs ‘right’ paradigm is a nigh-on-useless political construct, but I’ll run with it for this post) of Australian politics?

Actually yes.

I expect that Bernardi’s Australian Conservatives will do very well. They will attract an enormous number of LNP voters (including from the Nationals side of things) who are totally fed up with the LNP, but can’t stomach One Nation, and who won’t touch the Liberal Democrats. These are people who agree with Bernardi that the Liberal Party has lost its way and betrayed its values, and that a true conservative party no longer exists in Australian Politics. I expect Bernardi’s Conservatives to do very well both electorally and financially, with supporters and donors being quiet but committed, and coming out of the woodwork when it counts.

These are the people who have been taken for granted by successive LNP leaders, because ‘where else can they go?’ To the Australian Conservatives, that’s where.

And go they will.

The Australian Conservatives are likely to have an impact on the Liberal Party similar to what the Democrats did in the 80s, but in the opposite direction. The Liberals will have to take care how far ‘left’ they go on key issues, because people now know there’s someone else they can give their first preference.

And the symbolism of a sitting LNP Senator departing over principles, when put in the context of the LNPs continued journey to the ‘left’, most notably under Turnbull, will resonate strongly through an already fragile party. The repercussions to the Liberal Party directly may take months to play out, and I’d be surprised if Turnbull’s leadership survived till the next election.

Would I vote for the Australian Conservatives, as a personally conservative but politically libertarian person? I don’t know yet. I need time to see their policies and observe to what degree are they going to use government force to push conservatism onto others. But based on what I know of Cory Bernardi, I’ll be taking the time to have a look, which is more than can be said for almost every other political movement in Australia right now.

Senator Bernardi’s speech in full:

Mr President, I rise to inform the Senate that this morning I have resigned as a member of the Liberal Party.

I consider it my duty to inform the Senate of this decision prior to making any public comment.

After a membership spanning my entire adult life, having been a State President and a Federal Vice President, this has been a very difficult decision for me – perhaps the most difficult of my life.

I stand here today both reluctant and relieved; reluctant because this decision has weighed heavy on my heart but relieved because, whilst difficult, it is the right thing to do.

When, as a younger man I first joined the ‘ship of state’ I was in awe of its traditions and the great captains that had guided us on our way. But now, as the seas through which we sail have become more challenging, the respect for the values and principles that have served us well have been set aside for expedient, self-serving, short term ends. This approach has not served our nation well.

There are few, if any, who can claim that respect for politics and politicians is stronger now than it was a decade ago.

In short, the body politic is failing the people of Australia and it’s clear we need to find a better way.

The level of public disenchantment with the major parties, lack of confidence in our political process and concern about the direction of our nation is very strong. This is a direct product of the political class being out of touch with the hopes and aspirations of the Australian people.

Politics at its best has always been the shared contribution of men and women of conscience who bring their skills to bear for the nation. It is not in the interests of our nation to yield to the temptation of personality politics which shrink the debate to the opinion of the few whilst compromising the good sense and values of the many.
For many years I have warned of the consequences of ignoring the clear signs. I have spoken of the need to restore faith in our political system and to put principle back into politics. I regret that too often these warnings have been lost on those who needed to hear them most.

It really is time for a better way; a conservative way.

The enduring beauty of the conservative tradition is that it looks to the past, to all that is great and good, to inform the future. It is a rich paradox where the established equips us for the new.

And so today I begin something new, built on enduring values and principles that have served our nation so well for many decades.

It is a political movement of Australian Conservatives…a community of individual Australians who will share their unique gifts and talents to chart a better way.

We will be united by a desire to create stronger families, foster free enterprise, limit the size and scope and reach of government whilst seeking to rebuild civil society.

We will give hope to those who despair at the current state of Australian politics and who demand a better way for themselves, their children and their country.

The journey ahead will not be for the faint of heart but worthwhile ventures rarely are.

And every journey begins with a first step.

Today I take that step, knowing the direction in which I will head and hoping that those truly concerned for the future of our nation will choose to join me.

Mr President, in light of this statement you may like to consider the Senate seating arrangements.

I thank the Senate.

There’s definitely a lot in there to like, particularly his statement “We will be united by a desire to… foster free enterprise, limit the size and scope and reach of government whilst seeking to rebuild civil society.” But as I said above, will they live and let live, or be ‘Conservative-or-else’? Will they show a better way, or push people toward their way?

My support, along with the support of many others, will depend on this distinction.

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